Challenge index · Evidence reviewed 6 September 2026
Evidence overview
Over 70%
Of global cobalt production comes from the DRC, according to the 2025 Growth Gateway processing study.
UK Growth Gateway · Investing in critical minerals processing in Africa, 2025 ↗Data scope: A country-and-mineral example reported in June 2025, not Africa’s share of all mineral production. The report distinguishes extraction from refining capacity.
What the evidence tells us
Growth Gateway finds that strong upstream production has not translated into equivalent processing capability. It evaluates seven critical minerals using a minimum-viable-scale framework. The commercial case therefore depends on the mineral and processing stage, rather than a blanket assumption that every resource should be refined domestically.
Read the underlying source ↗Axum’s research and commercialisation agenda
Axum seeks locally useful production methods that can progress from research to repeatable manufacture. Mineral-processing feasibility sits alongside biocontrol production and industrial linkages in this arm. Development should establish buyer demand and operating economics before investing in protection or scale.
These are proposed research directions. Patentability and commercial viability remain to be established for each invention.
Research directions
Mineral-processing feasibility →
One country, mineral and processing stage
Which technical bottleneck prevents viable local processing?
Growth Gateway processing study · 2025 ↗Local biocontrol manufacture →
Nigerian crop-input value chains
Can production quality be maintained while reducing the cost of a locally adapted input?
Aflasafe commercialisation study · 2022 ↗Urban industrial linkages →
Resource-dependent cities and their surrounding production corridors
What prevents growing urban demand from supporting competitive local production?
Urbanization with and without industrialization · Journal of Economic Growth ↗Youth skills-to-employment pathways →
Young workers and employers in a selected local industry
Can training tied to verified employer demand improve access to sustained work?
Demographic dividend framework · Gates Open Research ↗Selected literature
A starting library of published studies and institutional evidence. Source types and dates are identified below; inclusion does not imply endorsement of an Axum product.